The Changing Faces of the U.S. Workforce

Our country is changing. It is changing in ways that we would not have imagined even 15 or 20 years ago. It is changing socially, economically, politically and demographically. Our population—both here in California and across the nation—is changing. People of color no longer are a convenient lumped-together minority; combined, they form a statistical majority in many places.

For example, Los Angeles County is now a “minority” county; for the past couple of years, the combined African-American, Hispanic and Asian populations outnumber the Anglos. The same will likely become true for the entire State of California in the near future. And both trends likely will accelerate in the years to come.

The United States—and especially the Southern California region—truly is that “melting pot” we have all heard and been taught about. Brothers and sisters, we live in the heart of it.

What does this mean for us, as union members and families, as area residents, as part of a skilled and successful working force? Beyond that, what do the changing faces of America mean for us today, and for our children tomorrow? How will a changing United States educate its children? How will our people train for jobs today and in the future?

Recent Background and Statistics

Under President Clinton, national (and California) unemployment hit historical lows—certainly good news for us in the labor movement. It has been a different story under President Bush: unemployment peaked at 6% in March, 2001. Job creation has been stagnant since he took office.

Late 2003 unemployment figures show a slight decline in joblessness, with manufacturing unemployment dipping at the end of the year. As has been the case for generations, the Anglo unemployment rate is lower than that of African-Americans and Hispanics (with Asians having the same statistical joblessness rate as Anglos). Among young people, unemployment runs about triple the national adult rate, with Anglo youth rates somewhat lower than that of Hispanic young people and very much lower than that of African-American youngsters.

For most of 2003, jobs were lost throughout the United States. This depressing trend has been seen in the non-farming (manufacturing, service, professional) ranks, where some 235,000 such jobs were lost between November, 2002 and November, 2003.

Clearly, certain industries have been harder hit than others during the recessionary period between 2001 and 2003. Service and public/government jobs are up, as are engineering and management positions (the bulk of Local 18’s membership).

The Changing Faces in the Workplace

The national labor force is changing significantly. It grew annually by 1.6% in the past 50 years; in the next 50 years, it is estimated that it will grow at only a 0.6% rate. The workforce will also age: today, working people over age 55 constitutes about 13% of the jobforce; by 2020, it will make up 20% of the workforce.

It is becoming a more racially/ethnically/culturally diverse workforce: Today, the jobforce is roughly 73% Anglo, 11% Hispanic, 12% African-American, and 5% Asian. By 2010, the workforce percentage of Anglos will decline quite a bit, the percentage of Hispanics will rise notably, African-Americans will hold steady, and Asians will increase somewhat. But by 2050, or even earlier, the workforce picture will look significantly different: Anglos, 53%, Hispanic, 24%, African-American, 14%, and Asians, 11%.

In the first decade of this new century, the workforce will grow in different ways: Anglos, at a rate of 0.5%/year; Hispanics, at a rate of 3.7%/year; African-Americans, at a rate of 1.9%/year, and Asians, at a rate of 3.7%/year.

The United States Faces an Overall Labor Shortage

The demand for labor is outstripping the supply of able, trained working men and women. Between now and 2030, the disparity will grow. By 2030, we will need a labor force for some 200 million jobs, but we are projected to have only 140 million or so people in the workforce. We stand to be 60 million working people “in the hole.” Between 1980 and 2000, the native workforce grew by 44% nationally; between 2000-2020, it is projected to expand by zero percent!

Further, the economy faces a severe shortage of skilled workers in the jobforce. Between 2010 and 2020, it is estimated that the skilled-worker gap (between available jobs and people who can fill them) will rise from 5.3 million to 14 million. Concurrently, the unskilled gap will rise from 1.7 million to 7 million during the same time.

Here is some encouraging news from the perspective of IBEW Local 18: Over the next 25 years, it is projected that the number of management-related and technical support/engineering jobs will rise consistently and rather sharply. In thinking about the many units and very broad range of employees we represent, it appears safe to assume that the kind of positions we fill will be available—at least through the next generation.

Gross Domestic Productivity

Gross Domestic Productivity (GDP) is the value of what we produce/manufacture/grow in this country. During the period 1980-1995, the national GDP grew at a rate of 1.4%/year; between 1996-2002, the GDP expanded at a better rate of 2.6% annually. In the second quarter of 2003, the national GDP barreled ahead at a rate of 7%.

While these are encouraging figures—especially the mid-2003 growth percentage—there are some disturbing trends. Across the nation and even in California, jobs are being lost permanently. Between November, 2001 and August, 2003, the number of unemployed working men and women who have been permanently laid off has risen—and at a higher rate than in previous recent time periods.

A Global Snapshot

While the United States’ economy is showing signs of revival and expansion, the Japanese economy is also starting to rebound from its miserable weakness during the 1990s. Similarly, the overall European economic picture is generally sound. But the major economic “achiever,” the country whose economy is booming is China. China’s economic growth (8.2% in 2003 and a projected 7.7% this year) is far outpacing that of any other industrialized country. South Korea and the United States rank second and third in this critically important comparison. And China will receive an even bigger economic boost when she hosts the Summer Olympics in 2008.

But China is accomplishing this at a staggering cost in worker wages and benefits. For example, both the United States and Japan pay their manufacturing working people, on the average, somewhere between $16-16.50/hour. European counterparts come in a bit lower, at about $14+/ hour, with the growing Asian countries, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, at about 35-40% of the European rate. By comparison, Chinese manufacturing workers earn a pitiful $0.61 (61 cents)/hour! That’s some tradeoff for its booming economy; imagine that pay scale here!

The Challenge to the American Economy

The changing workforce demands:

• Transferring jobs to a new generation of working men and women
• Understanding that the workplace is a global reality—no longer just a domestic realm
• More skilled workers for more skilled jobs
• Acceptance and inclusion of a more diverse workforce
• The absolute necessity for better education and job training

How we respond to the changing workforce will determine:

• Our quality of life throughout the United States, for all working men, women and families
• Our ability to compete in the interrelated, interlocking global economy
• Our national economic, social and political security

Next month: Educating and Training Tomorrow’s Workforce.

In unity,

BRIAN D’ARCY, Business Manager